Choo Choo! All Aboard the Maya Train!

I was skeptical it would ever happen…

Nearly 1,000 miles of rail across southern Mexico connecting five states: Chiapas, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán, and Quintana Roo…

That last state is where you’ll find the Riviera Maya, one of the top places on my real estate investing beat.

Anyway…

The Mexican government’s promise was of a train connecting towns and cities and driving growth. Ambitious and rumored at last price check to cost $20 billion.

Now the first phase is open with services running since December.

I figured it was time I got one of my scouts to hop on board…see his report below.

But know this:

I’ve been bullish on Mexico’s Riviera Maya regardless of the train. I remain so…

Over 30 million passengers pass through Cancun’s shiny terminals every year now. The 80-mile stretch of coast from just south of Cancun to Tulum dwarves all other Caribbean destinations in terms of visitor numbers.

It’s “the Convenient Caribbean.” Easy to get to and from…

The train is just a cherry on top.

I feel the same about Tulum’s new airport, opened since December 2023 and now apparently seeing 2,000 passengers a day with direct flights to the U.S. and Canada. Tulum didn’t need this airport to boom into the beach city it’s becoming…it’s just going to speed things up…

When I first scouted the Riviera Maya, Tulum had one ATM. A few restaurants. Playa del Carmen still had most of its major evolution ahead of it…

What’s most mindboggling about the massive transformation is the phenomenal is the speed of it on the Riviera Maya. Outside of state-driven building projects in China I can’t think of any example like it…

I mean, it took Miami over 100 years to become the city it is today…Playa del Carmen was a fishing village with pigs roaming the streets just a few decades ago. Today it’s home to hundreds of thousands of people, many of them have come from all over the world. It’s an international place.

Members of my Real Estate Trend Alert and I have done extremely well being ahead of all this development and buying the right real estate (not yet a RETA member, go here for more on how to join). More on that at the end of Oliver’s report.

First…

Let’s see how Oliver got on the new train…

Taking the Train Along Mexico’s Riviera Maya

By Oliver Lovett

I bought my ticket from Cancun to Merida online, downloaded the PDF to my phone, and arrived at the looming Tren Maya station in Cancun at around 9 a.m. on a Monday morning.

When it’s completed, the Tren Maya stop at Cancun will have five platforms and nine lines, but when I visited just two of each were open. Still, it was more than enough for the 50 or so of us queuing at the platform.

The half-finished nature of the Cancun station was evident elsewhere. Much of the station was off-limits to the public. I saw no shops, cafés, or even a departures board.

Not that it mattered. I was there to get the train to Merida, and in that regard, everything went to plan.

I soon found myself comfortably seated on a clean, modern train, well before departure time.

Almost immediately on leaving Cancun for Merida, the train track is surrounded by thick jungle. Written down, it sounds almost romantic, but the views from the train window are unremarkable.

Along some stretches you can see the highway that runs parallel to the train track. But most of the time the scenery is an unchanging jungle.

Occasionally you’ll get a sudden glimpse of something a little magical. A swarm of butterflies dancing upwards circles around a decaying concrete pillar. A bright yellow bird hopping from branch to branch.

The route to Merida took around three hours and 45 minutes, making six stops in total. Most of these were small stations, with the exception of Chichen Itza, site of the famous pyramid. The station here was a decent size. The Mexican government are obviously counting on a lot of tourists arriving in future, but I only saw a handful disembark when we stopped. Like me, most people on the train were headed for Merida.

There was a long line of us filing out into Merida station, which was the most impressive station I saw. It’s large and well-designed, with cafés, shops, and even a small stall selling branded Tren Maya merchandise.

A shuttle connects the station with downtown Merida about a 20-minute bus ride away.

The first thing that hit me about Merida was the heat. Even in the late afternoon it felt a good deal warmer than in Cancun.

Merida is a colonial city which has long been home to many of Mexico’s wealthiest families. The main square is dominated by the cathedral and government buildings. Inviting side streets lead to shady plazas and inviting restaurants. Money has poured into this area over the past decade and many of the historic buildings have been restored.

This is where most of the tourists want to be. It’s safe, walkable, and home to many of the best bars and restaurants.

But for many locals and an increasing number of expats, it’s the neighborhoods to the north of Merida which hold the appeal. This is where the young people, investors, and entrepreneurs are buying homes. This part of Merida is like any other wealthy modern city, with high-end malls and amenities aimed at the fast-growing middle class.

North Merida has another advantage over the historic center, too. It’s closer to the beach.

Progreso: Merida’s closest beach town

The beach town of Progreso is an easy 30-minute drive from Merida. Its where Mexican families like to take their vacations.

When I arrived at the end of July, the summer holidays were underway and Progreso was packed. I walked along the new malecon, lined with rustic seafood restaurants on one side and the Caribbean on the other. I noticed new buildings going up close to the sea front. Away from the beach another big infrastructure project is underway. A huge bridge is being constructed that will allow trucks to leave the dock without having to pass through tourist areas. Money is being spent to enhance the tourist experience in Progreso.

Progreso is also a town well-known to members of Ronan’s Real Estate Trend Alert group.

In July 2021, RETA members had the chance to buy large, luxurious condos in a new community in Progreso with a marina, planned private beach, swimming pools, gym, and commercial area. The community is called Yucalpeten Marina and Resort.

RETA members were given an exclusive price starting from $209,800 for a two-bedroom condo. Today, a two-bedroom condo with a sea view (RETA members bought a marina view) in the same tower that RETA members bought is listed for $595,475.

An impressive price lift, especially when you consider that Yucalpeten is still under construction.

Playa del Carmen: The Riviera Maya’s #1 Destination

There’s one direct train per day from Merida to Playa del Carmen and it leaves at 7 a.m. So, at 6 a.m. I found myself arriving at Merida station on a perfect summer’s morning, with the early mist evaporating under the first rays of the Mexican sun.

Four hours and 45 minutes later I found myself arriving into a Playa del Carmen, bathed in glorious sunshine.

The Playa del Carmen train station is located on the outskirts of town. A bus from the station will drop you off in downtown Playa for 50 pesos (about $4).

As with all these train stations, it’s not in an ideal location. Having to spend another 30 minutes on a bus after nearly five hours on the train was not the kind of tonic I was looking for.

But arriving in downtown Playa del Carmen the sea breeze was going through the streets; the drinks were cold, and everything was alright.

The bustling beach town of Playa del Carmen has grown from sleepy fishing village into a top international vacation destination, attracting millions of visitors annually from the U.S., Europe, Latin America, and Mexico.

Playa has a diverse appeal which caters to vacationers, snowbirds, expats, and digital nomads alike. There are gorgeous beaches, lively bars and restaurants, and with much of the action condensed around 5th Avenue, everything is within walking distance.

Thanks to its proximity to the international airports in Cancun and Tulum, Playa del Carmen offers a blend of accessibility and comfort. One day it could even surpass Cancun as the Riviera Maya’s number one destination.

Playa del Carmen is a great place to spend time. And it’s an even better place to invest.

For example, in 2016 members of Real Estate Trend Alert had the opportunity to buy a two-bedroom condo Singular Joy, a community just steps from the beach. RETA members prices were from just $148,800. The last similar two-bedroom condo I saw for sale in Singular Joy was listed at $322,453.

Then there’s Singular Dream, where I recently had the pleasure of staying. With outstanding amenities such as three infinity pools, a sky bar, and gym, Singular Dream is popular with tourists looking to stay in Playa del Carmen.

I spoke with Ryan Pitts, a local property management expert. He told me owners renting in Singular Dream can expect at least 80% occupancy throughout the year, and close to 100% occupancy during the high season.

At the end of 2023, Ryan started managing a one-bed condo in Singular Dream for a RETA member. It’s on course to generate $35,000 gross income in 2024.

Incredibly, RETA members could buy one-bedroom luxury condos in Singular Dream from $174,600 in 2021. Condos like this have recently sold for $376,755.

It’s amazing to think that RETA members have been buying in Playa del Carmen since 2016…well ahead of the game.

Closing Thoughts on Tren Maya

This trip gave me an opportunity to see the scale of infrastructure being built across the region. Mexico is laying the groundwork here for the next generation and beyond. At times I wondered if we’re still early…Ronan can say…

As for the Tren Maya itself, it makes most sense as a way to explore the rest of the Riviera Maya, especially tourist sites like Chichen Itza, or cities like Merida, and Campeche. No need to worry about hiring a car, you can simply take the Tren Maya.

On the other hand, I can’t think of a good reason why you would take Tren Maya over a bus which costs less and drops you off much closer to your destination.

Which is why my last trip on this journey was the bus ride from Playa del Carmen to Cancun International Airport!

Ronan says:

“Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me…”

In 2010 President Felipe Calderón stood in front of assembled journalists on a piece of land near Tulum and announced a new international airport for the area. It’s happening for real now I figured…there was a press conference and a mariachi band. Razmatazz. But it didn’t happen. Calderon left office without a Tulum airport. I learnt my lesson. With big new infrastructure projects, I take the the view…

1) Any deal I’m interested in needs to stack up (and by this I mean hit my investment thresholds) if the project doesn’t materialize.

2) I’ll believe it when I see it.

But our Playa del Carmen and Tulum deals have stacked up without these big new infrastructure projects. And now I believe it…because members of my team and have taken the train and seen planes land with their own eyes.

Buying real estate is the most conservative way I know to invest. Buy great real estate that stacks up if nothing changes. But if those big infrastructure projects do materialize, or a situation changes for the better, then the real estate we bought will benefit…just like it has along this stunning part of the Caribbean.

Here are some examples of the uplifts Real Estate Trend Alert members have seen on the Riviera Maya over the past few years:

• Uplift of $97,945 in Playa del Carmen: In November 2022, I recommended two-bed two-bath condos in the Punta Laguna community in Corasol. RETA members could buy from just $228,600 and offered 10-year developer finance. In March 2024, the start price on a two-bed, two-bath condo in Punta Laguna was $326,545.

• Increases of $74,220 in Playa del Carmen: In June 2022, I launched a deal for small condos in a community named Paravian, located in downtown Playa del Carmen. The starting price for RETA members was $137,000. Just over a year later, the remaining units in Paravian (including one-bedrooms) were listed with a start price of $211,220.

• $234,900 Uplift in Tulum: I brought RETA members a deal in the chic beach destination of Tulum, also along Mexico’s Caribbean coast, in 2019. Members could own two-bed condos in a community called Gran Tulum from just $175,000. The last time I talked to the developer, two-bed condos there were listing at retail for $409,900.

• $125,638 More in Playa del Carmen: In March 2022, RETA members could get in on a deal in a master-planned beach community in Playa del Carmen called Corasol. Our opportunity was The Village. Two-bed, two-bath condos in The Village similar to those RETA members could buy from $258,600 have since listed at retail for $384,238—that’s $125,638 more.

(In order to get access to deals like the ones above, you need to be a RETA member. All the information you need to join is here.)

Ronan McMahon, Founder, Overseas Dream Home & Real Estate Trend Alert