How I Make the Really, Really Big Calls

Very rarely do I make big, bold calls about new destinations.

The kind of call where I predict real estate prices in that destination will soar…

That’s because any call like this has to be based on long-term, meticulous research by me and my Real Estate Trend Alert team.

Before I make a big prediction, especially about a new destination, we typically put boots-on-the-ground again and again over several years or more…building contacts with local developers and industry insiders.

It’s a long and painstaking process, but because of it our track record is exceptional…

• At a time of global financial crisis in 2008, I predicted northeast Brazil would buck the trend and see a massive economic boom…and that’s just what happened.
• In 2012, when Ireland was still reeling from the global financial crisis, I advised buying apartments in Dublin’s financial district. Some called me crazy, but anyone who followed by recommendation saw massive gains (187% on capital appreciation alone).
• In 2013, I made a similar call on Spain’s Costa del Sol…and not long after it experienced a huge tourism boom…
• And in the mid-2010s, I predicted the rise of Portugal’s southern Algarve region and Los Cabos as they evolved from tourist spots into year-round destinations. And at RETA we had a raft of double-your-money deals.

I point this out today because I’ve just made a new call like this…a brand-new big, bold prediction…my first in Europe for over a decade.

I’m all in on Montenegro…

Here’s why I’m so bullish on Montenegro in general, and the Bay of Kotor area in particular…

• Tourism in Montenegro is flourishing, a combination of the ultra-wealthy transforming it into their playground and the boom in tourism next door in Croatia…

• Kotor is the most popular destination in Montenegro and the closest to Croatia. Now development is rolling across the border onto this new Riviera, super-charging the opportunity.

• Little Montenegro and the rich investors who have bankrolled development on Europe’s new Riviera have gone straight for the ultra-wealthy market. Their grand vision is of an Adriatic Monaco—a Riviera for the 21st century. That vision is now being realized, but…

• Development is ignoring the growing numbers of “ordinary rich” folks seeking best-in-class real estate in Montenegro at prices that don’t break their bank. They want incredible resort-level amenities, but there’s very little of this kind of real estate at affordable prices. And that’s an opportunity…

I haven’t been this excited about an opportunity in Europe for a decade…since I first brought RETA members deals from Lagos on Portugal’s Algarve in 2015. Now members are sitting on uplifts in value of €275,000 and more there (details below).

That’s the scale of the opportunity with Montenegro and the new deal I’ve found there… (All the details are in my full briefing on this opportunity here.)

I spend a lot of time on the road. My team of scouts likewise are regularly traveling. In the world of real estate, there’s no substitute for this boots-on-the-ground research.

All this travel costs a lot of money. The annual bill for travel and research is usually more than a million dollars, but it’s worth every penny.

It’s the only way to know for sure…

We don’t just put boots on the ground in a place once…we do it again and again over a period of years. We build contacts, meet insiders, and track developments. This way we can ensure we have all the facts and don’t move too early. We wait until the case is proven…until we know with 100% certainty that a destination is about to reach a whole new level.

It’s a process that’s worked time and time again.

Here’s what I mean…

I first scouted the Riviera Maya, Mexico’s Caribbean coast, two decades ago.

Back then, Playa del Carmen, just south of Cancun, was a small, dusty town largely known as the place to get the ferry to the island of Cozumel. And the town of Tulum, an hour further south, was barely on the map.

But I knew both had potential. So I returned for years…building contacts and waiting for the infrastructure to evolve. Today, Playa and Tulum are among the hottest beach destinations on the planet. And because I was tracking their development decades ago, my RETA group got in ahead.

I waited for the right time, until after the roads were already built and the tourists were already coming, and I found the right deals for my RETA group. And we’ve seen huge uplifts as a result…

• $309,018 More—In 2021, RETA members had the chance to buy two-bed condos from $265,304 in a community called Singular Dream in Playa del Carmen. In early 2024, a two-bed condo in Singular Dream was listing for $574,322.
• $234,900 Uplift—I brought RETA members a deal in the chic beach destination of Tulum in 2019. Members could own two-bed condos in a community called Gran Tulum from just $175,000. The last time I talked to the developer, they said two-bed condos there were listing at retail for $409,900.

Having boots on the ground also meant we found opportunities others couldn’t see in Ireland and Spain…

In the wake of the global financial crisis, when most investors were steering clear of badly impacted economies like Spain and Ireland, I was using my firsthand contacts and boots-on-the-ground experience to find incredible fire-sale deals.

In February 2012, I recommended two-bedroom apartments in Dublin’s financial district listed for €135,000 (about $179,000 at the time). Today, two-bedroom apartments in the same area sell for in the region of €400,000 ($428,000). That’s a 187% gain on capital appreciation alone. And it doesn’t include the rental income you could have earned.

The following year, I spotted similar opportunities in Spain. In 2013, Spanish banks started selling condos for as much as 80% off right across the country. And yet on the Costa del Sol the demand outlook was stronger than ever.

This stretch of Spain’s southern coast is where Northern Europeans have gone for vacations and retirement for generations. I first scouted it around two decades ago and I could see that all the big demographic trends were in favor of the Costa del Sol bouncing back massively from the crisis. And so I brought a host of fire-sale deals on the Costa del Sol to my RETA group. To give you a brief sample…

Gain of €102,100—I brought members the chance to buy a fire-sale deal in the pretty marina town of La Duquesa in 2013. RETA members could buy here from €86,900. A few years back, one of these condos sold at €189,000—a gain of €102,100.

€191,000 More—In 2016, I brought RETA members an opportunity to own luxury homes in a community called Ibergolf. A home that a RETA member bought here for €179,000 in 2018 was sold in late 2023 for €370,000.

Our long-term boots-on-the-ground research also meant we were ahead in Portugal…

I first scouted Portugal’s southern Algarve region in 2002. Back then, it was busy only during the peak summer months. I always suspected that could change…that it could attract year-round expats and second-home owners. So year after year, I returned to scout the Algarve…watching the market and building contacts.

And when the change began in the mid-2010s, I was ready with a big call and a run of killer deals.

• Boost of €160,000—In December 2019, RETA members could buy in a community called Santa Maria from €310,500. Two-bed condos available to RETA members for €390,000 now list for €550,000.
• Over €500,000 More—In 2020, I recommended condos in a community called Adega. RETA members could get penthouses here for the incredible price of €480,000. Those now list for around €1 million…meaning they’ve doubled in price.
• An uplift of €275,000—In 2021, we had a RETA member-only deal in the luxury community of Dona Maria. RETA members could buy two-bed condos in Dona Maria from €575,000. These now list for about €850,000.

Or take the example of Cabo…

Cabo is an inherently desirable place, with great weather year-round, beautiful beaches, excellent golf, boating, and fishing…everything you’d want in a seaside destination.

Cabo had long been a playground of Hollywood and the ultra-rich. But around 2014, when I first scouted it, Cabo was changing. New infrastructure was making it cheaper to get there. And the “ordinary rich” were coming in droves, but there was a shortage of real estate that appeals to them—good-value condos and homes with high-end finishes and resort-style amenities in best-in-class communities. The kind of places where I like to live and stay…where I imagine you enjoy living and staying too…

So, I made a call…it was the right time to begin snapping up this kind real estate in Cabo. And RETA members have seen huge gains as we found deal after deal.

• Uplift of $388,844—Our first RETA deal in Cabo was in 2015 in the 5-star Quivira resort. Our RETA-only price on a two-bed ocean-view condo in the best-in-class Copala community was $336,156. I bought one. An identical condo to mine two floors above me later listed for $725,000. That’s $388,844 more.

• $250,000 More—In August 2021, RETA members could get a penthouse in a community called Cabo Costa for $249,000. I got one. Today a penthouse in Cabo Costa lists for $499,000. (I’ve now bought six condos in Cabo, all through off-market, RETA-only deals.)

Now, I’ve made another big call…this time in Montenegro.

My team and I have been putting boots on the ground in Montenegro for years, carefully studying the development of this destination.

And what we’ve seen points to an incredible opportunity…

Right now, the ordinary rich are flocking to this playground of the ultra-rich. But as in Cabo, there’s a lack of the kind of real estate they want to buy and rent.

That’s what makes the new RETA deal in Montenegro so special…

With this deal, the location is superb…in easy reach of Kotor old town, the swanky marinas of Porto Montenegro, Porto Novi…the airport of Tivat…the historic towns around the bay with their Venetian architecture…and all the incredible leisure activities you or your renters could want…

Plus, the amenities are outstanding including a state-of-the-art gym, infinity pool, fire pit with views of the bay, yoga/Pilates studio, restaurant, and much more.

Yet, the pricing for members of my Real Estate Trend Alert group is unbelievable.

That’s why I expect gains of €201,643 five years after delivery… (Details here.)

Around the Bay of Kotor, scarcity is acute. That’s a big part of the appeal, but it’s a challenge too. Geography is a big barrier. In the Bay of Kotor nature and time conspired to create a masterpiece…not to make it easy for builders. Dramatic mountains sweep down to the sea, softened by the green of forests.

Much of the prime land has been snapped up by the big-name luxury brands for all-inclusive resorts or lavish boutique hotels.

There’s nothing like our deal in Kotor, nothing at the insanely low RETA-only prices…

• We have stunning two-bed condos from a RETA-only €348,356. I expect these will be worth €550,000 five years after delivery. That’s a gain of €201,643.
• We also have stylish one-bed pied-à-terre apartments with sea views from a crazy, RETA-only €193,013. I expect these will be worth €304,735 five years after delivery. That’s a gain of €111,722.
• And finally, we have two extremely large and luxurious three-bed condos at RETA-only prices of €636,258 and €667,652.
• All these condos are fabulous RETA-grade deals. (Full details in my briefing here.)

To underline what an incredible deal this is, here’s what the developer has planned after my RETA group gets in first at our exclusive, off-market pricing…

• Within 10 weeks of the RETA launch the developer’s planning a 15% increase on the RETA pricing.
• Within a year of the RETA launch it’s a 30% increase on the RETA prices.
• All told over the build period the developer plans a 70% increase on the RETA pricing.

That would mean the two-bed condos RETA members can snap up for €348,356 will be listed at €592,205 on delivery according to the developer’s planned price increases.

If the developer goes ahead with his price increases it would mean the stylish one-bed pied-à-terre apartments with sea views we get from a RETA-only €193,013 will be priced at €328,122.

That shows how conservative my predictions are! And it shows the power of my RETA group to negotiate incredible deals.

For all the details, click here to begin reading my full briefing on this opportunity now.

And be aware: This deal will open on Wednesday, July 24 at 1 p.m. ET.

Ronan McMahon, Founder, Overseas Dream Home & Real Estate Trend Alert

P.S. Here’s another render of the planned amenities…this is a firepit with stunning views over the bay…