Last week, I found myself standing outside The Shelbourne Hotel in Dublin…
Fifteen years ago, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, I stayed here regularly, never paying more than €120 a night. Today, the cheapest rooms rarely go for less than €800.
Back then, The Shelbourne was caught up in the distressed-property fire sale that followed Ireland’s real estate crash. So was much of Dublin.
I remember finding an entire building around the corner from The Shelbourne listing for €800,000…and you could have gotten it for €600,000. Nearby, in Dublin’s financial district, two-bed apartments were listing for €135,000. In 2012, I recommended them to members of my Real Estate Trend Alert (RETA) group, writing. “Your tenants will be nurses, tech workers (in Google or Facebook), young accountants and lawyers, in their mid to late twenties.”
Most investors saw only crisis back then. But the demographic data told me a different story…
I passed by The Shelbourne Hotel on a typically cold day in Dublin last week, after traveling up from my base in Cork. Fifteen years ago, during Ireland’s property crash, I stayed here regularly for less than €120 a night. Today, even the cheapest rooms typically cost more than €800.
Jobs and people were flowing into Ireland. Investment from foreign tech companies too. At the same time, the population was rising. I predicted prices would rebound dramatically. And I warned that Ireland was heading for a housing undersupply catastrophe.
And that’s exactly where we’ve ended up…
That €800,000 house would be worth millions today. And those €135,000 apartments I recommended? They’d sell for in the region of €400,000. That’s 187% more, on top of 14 years of rental income. Currently, apartments like these in Dublin rent for €2,475 per month and up. Here’s an example (the cheapest two-bed I could find in the financial services district now).
In my home city of Cork too, I made recommendations around that time. In 2015, I recommended old, terraced houses in the area at the top of St. Patrick’s Hill, which lies just north of Cork city center. At the time I recommended them, a two-bedroom, two-bathroom house on St Patrick’s Hill listed for just €60,000. A similar house sold for €310,000 in 2024. That’s a huge gain in just a few years and all because I found the right neighborhood and the right play.
The cheapest two-bed apartment available in Dublin’s financial district rents for €2,475 per month.
We had a huge run-up in values in Ireland. But now I’m selling my rental properties here…
Today, Irish property owners are dealing with the biting implications of chronic supply shortages. Things have become very political. There are high taxes on rental profits (52% at the top end)…layers of onerous bureaucracy…tight rent controls…
So I’m selling my Irish rentals.
It’s an exceptional moment to be taking profits in Ireland and looking elsewhere for opportunity.
Places where investment is flowing in…where infrastructure is improving…where demand for best-in-class real estate is strong and growing…where foreign capital is welcome and treated well…
In other words: the kinds of places I focus on in RETA.
Which brings us to my scouting plans…
The view from my home office in the town of Caminha in northern Portugal. That’s Spain just across the river.
Yesterday, I flew from Cork to Santiago de Compostela in Spain, on my way to my home in Caminha in northern Portugal. (Porto is closer but there’s no direct flight from Cork.)
Today at 1 p.m. ET, I’ll be speaking to RETA members from my Caminha home in a RETA Live.
These are new monthly online events where I sit down with key members of my team to discuss what we’re seeing across our global beat.
After spending a few days at my home in Caminha, I’ll travel south, driving the entire length of Portugal’s coast.
I’ll stop in the Silver Coast region of Portugal, where I own a beachfront condo, to continue my scouting of that region.
Then on Monday, I’ll reach my ultimate destination—the most beautiful and historic beach town on Portugal’s southern Algarve coast…
The town of Lagos.
My objective in going to Lagos is simple…
This town has been the site of some of the best deals in the history of my RETA group. Now there’s a rapidly closing window of opportunity there. And I intend to jam my elbows into it and hold it open long enough to get another incredible deal for RETA members.
The developer I’m meeting with is someone my group has known and worked with for years.
In Lagos today, relationships are the only way into off-market deals like this.
I can’t share full details yet. But I can tell you this…
The town of Lagos on the western Algarve is drawing well-heeled folks from around the world thanks to its compelling mix of rich history, stunning beaches, incredible climate, and luxury marina district. This town now ranks among the elite European coastal destinations.
This opportunity sits in the most coveted coastal quarter of Lagos, close to the two beaches locals argue over as the town’s best—Porto de Mos and Dona Ana. (Dona Ana is so spectacular it’s been ranked among the best beaches in the world.)
The community itself is set to raise the bar for everything in town. Four pools, including a rooftop pool with sweeping ocean views…a spa with heated indoor pool, jacuzzi, and sauna…a gym…rooftop lounge and fire pit areas…
I’ve been scouting and recommending real estate in Lagos for years. I have rarely if ever seen an amenity stack like this here.
If the numbers come together the way I believe they can, this will be a flagship RETA deal. But I’ll know a lot more once I’ve walked the site, sat across the table from the developer, and completed the final pieces.
Stay tuned. More on that soon…
Wishing you good real estate investing,
P.S. I could tell you about previous RETA deals in Lagos…the huge uplifts…the stunning rental income…and how beautifully crafted the delivered buildings are…but watch this video my team prepared, and you can see it all for yourself. Click to view.
Take a tour of some of past RETA deals in Lagos. The new opportunity here could be the strongest yet.
